Just
after German chancellor Angela Merkel has been praised for bringing about a
compromise on a EU Treaty Reform, scepticism arises once more among the 27
member states. Certainly, the reform, for which there is such great need, is
not yet as sure as fate.
Portugal
,
having taken over the EU’s helm on
July 1, 2007
, meets the great challenge to chair the
treaty’s concrete elaboration. To comply with this exigent task, Portuguese
Prime Minister José Sócrates has set a tight schedule. Already at the end of
July (July 23-24), the Portuguese Presidency will open the Intergovernmental
Conference (IGC) which will assume the mandate to shape the political agreement
on a treaty reform, which was reached during the German Presidency,
juridically. The draft of the treaty is then scheduled to be adopted at an
informal summit in
Lisbon
on October 18-19. If it is adopted, the new treaty could be ready to take
effect before the elections for the European Parliament in 2009.
Portugal
’s
task will be to lend thrust to the process of making the modified treaty a
success. As there have been recent demands for further revisions of the
agreement, particularly with regards to the Council’s voting system, it is not
out of the question that
Portugal
will have to face new difficulties.
However,
it is not only the reform of the treaty that constitutes a challenge for the
Portuguese Presidency. Among the most important topics to be tackled by José
Sócrates and his team are, on the one hand, the following up of further
subjects addressed by the German Presidency and, on the other hand, the
priorities
Portugal
has decided to focus upon. Less abstractly, these tasks consist in the draw-up
of the consensus on climate protection achieved in March, the elaboration of
the next phase of the Lisbon Strategy, and the dialogue with
Africa
[2]
.
Although
there are certainly more topics to be approached by the Portuguese Presidency
within the framework of the Trio Programme, which is intended to provide for
more sustainability in the rotating presidency system, the success of the
Presidency will mainly be assessed with regards to the progress achieved
concerning the issues outlined above.
[3]
In
the following, it is my aim to highlight the aforementioned challenges, which
Portugal
has to
meet in the next six months. Departing from the conclusions of the German
Presidency, I will point out the challenges which arise from the ‘German
legacy’ first, and then elucidate the complexity of the foci
Portugal
has put forward. Finally,
I will try to outline the EU’s attitude towards
Portugal
’s Presidency.
Numerous press releases about the
German Presidency show that chancellor Merkel has obviously received good
credits in the past half-year for her office as ‘EU leader’, or as ‘primus
inter pares’
[4]
, as she herself termed the
chairmanship. Likewise, the majority of the members of the European Parliament
have passed a positive verdict on the agreements reached under the German
Presidency, especially on the reform treaty compromise accorded at the EU
summit on June 21-23. Doubtless, to foster the treaty process was the highest
priority of the German turn. Intensive negotiations, both before and at the EU
summit, have led to an agreement that preserves the main aspects of the
Constitutional Treaty, particularly the articles related to institutional
reform. Although the plan to substitute the treaties in force by one
constitutional treaty has failed, changes of the existing treaties pertain
primarily to two areas: There are modifications regarding the ‘Treaty on the
European Union’ (TEU) and second, alterations to the ‘Treaty establishing the
European Community’ (TEC) which will be renamed ‘Treaty on the Functioning of
the Union’, have been adopted
[5]
.
Items that have been dismissed pertain mainly to the constitutional character
of the treaties as well as to all references to state symbolism, such as the
flag, the anthem, and the office of the ‘Union Minister for Foreign Affairs’,
which has now been dubbed ‘High Representative of the
Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy’. Due to British opposition, there will
only be references to the ‘Charter of Fundamental Rights’ instead of an
insertion of the entire text. Nevertheless, the reference will have legal value
even if the Charter is not legally binding in the
UK
. Another highly controversial
issue at the summit has been the introduction of a new rule of double majority
voting for Council decisions
[6]
,
which will be valid from 2014 on, with a transitional period until 2017, when
additional stipulations on blocking minorities will be put in place. Moreover,
the outlines of the Reform Treaty include the establishment of a single legal
personality for the EU, a permanent Council presidency to be voted by the
European Parliament, the office of a ‘High Representative of the Union for
Foreign Affairs and Security Policy’, substituting the ‘High Representative on
Foreign Affairs’, and the commissioner for external relations, the reduction of
the number of Commissioners and a clause that allows member states to leave the
EU. Besides the provisions adopted from the Constitutional Treaty, new elements
will be added to the Reform Treaty. These are related to the strengthening of
national parliaments, to the acknowledgement of new challenges, such as climate
change and energy solidarity, and to opt-in/out clauses to some new policies,
concerning particularly judicial cooperation.
The second important challenge
during the German Presidency was the agreement on climate protection. In March,
the European Council adopted several resolutions pertaining to environmental
issues and energy policy, including a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by
20% relative to 1990 levels, an increase of renewable energies to 20%, as well
as the raise of energy efficiency by 20% and of bio fuels to a minimum of 10%,
all to be realised until 2020
[7]
.
Concerning external relations, chancellor
Merkel has focused on the eastern neighbours of the EU. Her effort to foster
the relations with
Central Asia
has led to an
agreement on a strategy for a new partnership. However, the German Presidency
has not succeeded in negotiating a follow-up to the partnership agreement with
Russia
, which
is about to expire
[8]
.
With regard to progress of the
Lisbon Strategy, which is one of the priorities of the Trio Presidency’s joint
programme, the European Council reached a consensus on reducing bureaucracy in
order to increase
Europe
’s economic
competitiveness as well as on a Community Strategy 2007-2012 on health and
safety at work
[9]
.
Certainly,
the institutional impasse caused by the failed referenda on the Constitutional
Treaty in 2005 has been overcome at the EU summit on 21-23 June. Yet, the work
lying ahead of José Sócrates and his staff will be challenging. Making use of
the momentum set free by the agreement reached in
Brussels
, the Portuguese Prime Minister has
committed himself to getting the Reform Treaty approved of as soon as possible
[10]
.
Hence, the Portuguese Presidency now has to elaborate a draft of the treaty to
be presented at the IGC on July 23rd. The process could become complicated
if member states attempt to reopen the debate on issues already agreed upon. In
response to signs indicating jus this, Sócrates already declared that “in the
mandate received by the Presidency there is no foreseen possibility for
revision of that same mandate”
[11]
.
The President of the European Commission, José Manuel Durão Barroso, supported
Sócrates’ view.
A
second challenge the Portuguese Presidency will encounter is more technical:
Although the text of the Reform Treaty will be shorter than that of the
Constitutional Treaty, experts affirm that the drawing up of the juridical
wording will be much more complex, which is to a great extend due to the
exemption clauses for the
UK
and
Poland
[12]
.
Third,
Sócrates will also have to gain public support for the Reform Treaty, as the
current mandate was mainly debated in closed-door negotiations.
In
fact, the difficulties in sight have already evoked a number of critical
voices, both among the members of the European Parliament and on the side of
international organizations. They have been reminding us of one of the main
aims of the reform process, which is to increase the EU’s closeness to
citizens, and that this must be taken into account in the elaboration of the
draft of the treaty. Thus, they call for opening part of the IGC’s meetings to
the public in order to “add legitimacy to the process”
[13]
,
as Pat Cox, the President of the European Movement, puts it.
In
terms of Climate Protection Policies, the ambitious resolutions of the
“Historical Agreement”
[14]
reached in March have to be followed up. Two main challenging areas can be
outlined: First, the Portuguese Presidency has to commit itself to creating
legislative measures to achieve the goals agreed upon at the March summit.
As soon as the European Commission
will have presented its proposals on how to distribute the burden in order to
meet goals related to climate protection among the member states, the
Portuguese Presidency will face a further discussion and elaboration on a
reasonable consensus to meet this complicated issue
[15]
.
The presidency’s task will be to encourage and coordinate the member states'
efforts towards implementing the measures agreed on. It will be particularly
demanding to support poorer Eastern European countries to make their
contributions, since they are more dependent on heavy industry and
carbon-generated energy.
Secondly,
José Sócrates and his staff will have to continue the necessary preparatory
discussions for the United Nations Bali Conference on climate change. If the EU
wants to keep up a leading role in international climate policy, as the March
resolution and the conclusions of the G8 summit suggest, then José Sócrates has
to assume a key position at the Bali Conference. In this respect, there is no
doubt that the measures already adopted will lend credibility to the claim that
the EU’s goals can be reached, which is necessary to engage more countries in
Bali, as Commission President Barroso stated
[16]
.
Nevertheless, one has to take into account that at the beginning of 2007 the EU
had only reduced its CO2-emissions by 1.2 % out of the envisioned reduction of
8% between 1990 and 2012, which shows that meeting its aims will be a great
challenge
[17]
.
3.3 The
Lisbon
Strategy
The
Lisbon Strategy is now to be revised, as the current cycle will end at the end
of the year, this being one of the key initiatives
Portugal
launched during its last
presidency in 2000. Hence, the Portuguese Presidency will challenge the
preparation of the next set of guidelines, once the Commission has presented
its interim report on the current achievements. Before those revised guidelines
will be applied (2008-2011), the presidency’s tasks will be threefold: First,
it has to stir national debates to make the strategy more visible and relevant
to national economic reform. Second, it must stimulate the exchange of reform
practices between member states. Third, it is bound to assess and coordinate
the new national reform programmes, to be submitted by member states in autumn
[18]
.
Concerning
the content of the new guidelines, Prime Minister Jóse Sócrates declared to put
special emphasis on the social dimension of the European model. In order to
realize the central idea of the strategy, which is to make the EU the most competitive,
knowledge-based economy in the world, Sócrates intends to give new impetus to
the debate on the “flexicurity” concept. This model is meant to help
Europe
adapt to new requirements on the labour market due
to rapid development through globalization, and thus it tries to balance
flexibility and security enhanced by a concept of life-long learning. Embodying
a combination of employers’ and employees’ interests, “flexicurity” attempts to
reconcile the need for a lower dismissal protection and high benefits for the
unemployed. As in some member states, lower dismissal protection is perceived
as job insecurity, it will be Sócrates’ challenge to convey the positive
aspects of this model
[19]
.
Based
on the view that “Africa and
Europe
have a
history of missed opportunities […]”
[20]
,
the Portuguese Presidency has declared to focus on the EU-Africa relations,
culminating in a summit to take place in December.
In
this context, the Portuguese Prime Minister is committed to focus on three main
topics which are closely intertwined, comprising migration, development
policies, and economic cooperation. These may seem old, but Sócrates has
affirmed that he will push them in new directions. He aims at fostering the
cooperation with illegal immigrants’ states of origin and at launching ideas on
legal migration and better social inclusion policies.
Aspiring
to a strategic partnership between the EU and
Africa
,
the Portuguese Presidency also attempts to promote more investment in the
African market, following the Chinese example.
However,
Sócrates’ main challenge will be to realize the EU-Africa summit in December as
some member states already objected to the participation of Robert Mugabe,
Zimbabwe
’s
President, against whom the EU imposed sanctions. The African Union, on the
other hand, insists on Mugabe’s participation; otherwise, some African states
have already declared that they will not attend the meeting. In
2003, a
high-level meeting
between the EU and Africa was scheduled but eventually cancelled due to the
Zimbabwean President who is accused of violation of human rights and of
imposing a dictatorial
[21]
regime on
Zimbabwe
.
There is no doubt that Mugabe will make use of the summit in order to escape
his isolation. Therefore, Socrates would have to face the difficult task of not
letting Mugabe profit from his participation in the summit
[22]
.
4. Great
Challenges,
Europe
’s Expectations and a Firm Will to Act
When
Germany
handed over the
presidency to
Portugal
on July, 1, European journalists reflected on the challenges José Sócrates and
his staff have to face in the next six month. The following press review shows
the variety of expectations attributed to the Portuguese Presidency
[23]
,
ranging from scepticism to a firm belief in
Portugal
’s diplomatic abilities at
on an international level.
Whereas
the Swedish Upsala Nye Tidning
[24]
and the Swiss Le Temps
[25]
doubt that the
Portuguese can meet the complex issues in the semester ahead of us, the German Süddeutsche Zeitung
[26]
and the International Herald Tribune
[27]
share a more
ambivalent point of view. Although they are both questioning the Portuguese
abilities to lead the EU due to less experience and political weight on the
international political stage, they recognize
Portugal
’s firm will to act.
Britain
’s Financial Times
[28]
, as well as the
German Deutsche Welle
[29]
acknowledge that
the tasks of the Portuguese Presidency will be quite demanding, but still, they
are confident of the success of the Portuguese turn. According to their views,
being a smaller nation can also be advantageous for the presidential office, as
such a nation is more likely to act as a neutral negotiator.
Even
though the topics outlined in this paper only reflect a small part of the set
of priorities the Portuguese Presidency is committed to tackle, it becomes
quite clear that José Sócrates and his team have to face demanding tasks in the
next semester. First and foremost,
Portugal
has to bring about the
Reform Treaty, whose elaboration will create at least three challenges, both
political and technical. Concerning climate protection policies, the Portuguese
Presidency has to proceed in creating concrete legislative measures, and is
also faced with the task of preparing the European position at the Bali
Conference in December.
The
next phase of the Lisbon Strategy will require the creation of new guidelines
as well as the promotion of new socio-economic concepts. Regarding external
relations,
Portugal
faces
the challenge of establishing a strategic partnership with
Africa
and with arranging an EU-Africa summit, whose realization is not yet certain
due to Zimbabwean’s President Robert Mugabe.
European
journalists assess
Portugal
’s
challenges very differently. Certainly, curiosity about the upcoming
developments in the next weeks and months can be justified.
./.
